unemployment rate in namibia pdf

Indonesia consists of various ethnicities. In the case shown here, the real wage, e, equals the equilibrium solution defined by the intersection of the demand curve D1 and the supply curve S1. Many consider a 4% to 5% unemployment rate to be full employment and not particularly concerning. However, with an unemployment rate of 29.9 percent, poverty incidence of 26.9 percent and HIV prevalence of 16.9 percent, a large portion of the Namibian population remains vulnerable. This is a quantitative study that relied on semi-annual time series secondary data running from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the World Bank database to examine the validity of the Phillips Curve in Namibia, excluded the periods of 2007-2008 of the global financial shock, as well as 2020-2021 of COVID-19 pandemic. (2005). Also, the study used the interpolation method to remove the data inconsistency for unemployment between the periods that were not readily available in any data source. Nepal Rastra Bank has to emphasize monetary policy instruments that help to increase the money supply in the long run and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) should be encouraged to increase spending on capital overheads to broaden and enhance the growth of the economy. (2020). Even though the study of Ogbokor (2005) did also not encompass the period of the crises, it used a shorter period compared to the period of this study. Namibia is confronted with a high ocial unemployment rate of 51.2% based on the Labour Force Survey2008, while 83.6% of the 15 to 19 years of age are unemployed. Misini, S., & Badivuku-Pantina, M. (2017). From the rest of the world, Wulandari et al. 1 Johanna Pangeiko Nautwima, 2 Asa Romeo Asa. Learning Objectives Explain how unemployment is measured in the United States. Mapped: Unemployment Forecasts, by Country in 2023 [16] Only South Africa has a higher Gini coefficient. Determinants of Unemployment: Characteristics and Policy Responses in Bhutan Authors: Kaewkwan Tangtipongkul Thammasat University Deki Wangmo Motithang higher secondery school Figures Figures -. To the extent that such efforts make labor-market information more readily available, they reduce frictional unemployment. The unemployment rate equals the number of people looking for work divided by the sum of the number of people looking for work and the number of people employed. Lastly, the study suggests future investigations to assess panel analyses on the phenomenon concerning developing countries, particularly those in the same region. PDF 01 The Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Namibia 5.3 Unemployment - Principles of Macroeconomics - Open Textbook Library A Conditional Restricted Equilibrium Correction Model on Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index and Macroeconomic Indicators with 2008 Global Financial Crisis Effects: A Univariate Framework Approach. It is discovered that all the variables are integrated at I(1). The overall results indicate that fiscal operations lead to economic growth as shown by the Baseline model; and it also leads to economic stability as revealed by the Alternative model. The level of unemployment in Nigeria has risen persistently, increasing the risk of the non-achievement of the SDG goal 8 decent work and economic growth. Business cycles may generate additional unemployment. More, Rasna (2010) used Cointegration and Granger causality econometric analysis to determine the applicability of the Phillips Curve to Bangladesh by employing the macroeconomic time series data running from 1995-96 to 2009-2010 to test whether there exists a short-run or a long-run Phillips curve in Bangladesh. Phillips curve inflation and unemployment: An empirical research for Greece. The results reveal a trade-off between the variables, confirming the existence of the Phillips Curve in Namibia. Many households include more than one adult; the survey gathers information on about roughly 100,000 adults. The first time the new survey question was used, the unemployment rate among women rose by 0.5 percentage point. To estimate the unemployment rate, government surveyors fan out across the country each month to visit roughly 60,000 households. American Economic Review, 50(2), 177194. Forder, J. A monthly survey of households divides the civilian adult population into three groups. Oba, E. O., & Enoh, O. H. (2020): A validation of the Phillips Curve hypothesis in Nigeria: A quarterly data-based approach. Namibia . The ARDL Bound testing show the existence of long-run relationship among the examined variables in both the two models, with corresponding F-statistic values of 7.62 and 6.67, respectively. This led to the conclusion that there is no causal relationship between the variables, implying that they are independent. Information in the labor market will always have a cost, and that cost creates frictional unemployment. Shifotoka, H. (2015). In principle, whether unemployment rate in the country is at 51 percent, 15 percent, 10 percent or even 5 percent, it is still unemployment which denies Namibians food on their tables. Many state agencies, for example, serve as clearinghouses for job market information. The results show that all the variables were stationary at level forms, implying the absence of the long-run relationship between the variables. Overall, evidence from the analyses conforms to the trade-off between inflation and unemployment postulation of the Phillips Curve (1958) with respect to the Namibian economy. Even if the economy is operating at its natural level of employment, there will still be some unemployment. The duality of the labor market, combined with slow job creation and low primary-sector productivity, results in very high unemployment. In 1968, Friedman (1968) criticized the idea of a perpetual downward sloping of the Phillips Curve. Namibia Statistics Agency - The official website of the Namibia The study also found a unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to inflation in Namibia. This may limit the consumer spending growth in a small country like Namibia and reduce prospects for discretionary consumer categories. Is an Associate akanboa@unisa.ac.za Professor of Economics at University of South Africa Tel: +27124334637. Statistics Agency, Windhoek, Namibia. Following a time of . PREFACE . Phillips (1958) used the data for almost a century from 18611957 to examine the relationship between the variables. Academia.edu uses cookies to personalize content, tailor ads and improve the user experience. UNDP Namibia 2023 Quarter 1 Newsletter is available here. Nevertheless, Ogbokor (2005) applied the Ordinal Least Square (OLS) model to investigate the applicability of the short-run Phillips Curve in Namibia, employing time series data from various publications covering the period 1991 to 2005. This has led to a rise of the concept of a trade-off relationship between inflation and unemployment (Oba & Enoh, 2020), derived from the Phillips Curve that has been a dominant focus between researchers in the field of macroeconomics since the 1950s. Explain why, in this example, both the number of people employed and the unemployment rate increased. Moreover, the Durbin-Watson (D.W.) measures the correlation between the residuals and estimates whether autocorrelation exists in the model. Youth unemployment is a great concern in Namibia due to the increasing rates of unemployment in the country between the periods of 2000-2008. [Masters thesis, University of Namibia]. Asides from that, Samuelson and Solow (1960) elucidated that the existing trade-off between the variables is unsustainable since the Phillips Curve has a high probability of shifting. Free Essay: Unemployment in Namibia - 650 Words | Studymode The unemployment rate in Namibia remains high. International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, 1(4),42-48. Behera, J., & Mishra, A. K. (2017). The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which created a free trade region encompassing Mexico, the United States, and Canada, has created some structural unemployment in the three countries. Similarly, Ogbokor (2005) observed the same situation within the Namibian economy. Hence, real wages would adjust to equalize the demand and supply of labor, resulting in a natural rate of unemployment. In addition, the coefficient of determination in both equations is less than the Durbin-Watson statistic, indicating a good fit of the model and the absence of serial correlation. In measuring unemployment, we thus focus on labor rather than on capital and natural resources. Structural unemployment emerges for several reasons. What is a healthy unemployment rate in Namibia? MONETARY POLICY OPERATION IN NIGERIA FROM 1980 TO 2016. The Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Namibia Within the Framework of the Phillips Curve. The government also promotes entrepreneurship via both, the programme Vision 2030 (2004) and the Namibia's . This implies an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. Summary Forecast Stats Download Unemployment Rate in Namibia decreased to 20.80 percent in 2022 from 21.30 percent in 2021. source: World Bank 10Y 25Y 50Y MAX Chart Compare Export API Embed Namibia Unemployment Rate In Namibia, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force. Namibia Labour Force Survey 2014 Report. Explain how unemployment is measured in the United States. All numbers are in thousands. Unemployment Rate (2018) - Namibia Statistics Agency PDF Namibia QER Q4 2020 Want to create or adapt books like this? Therefore, the study calls upon policymakers to adopt a policy mix that can be favorably disposed towards addressing the devastating issue of unemployment, predominantly among the youth, to mitigate the adverse effects of these macroeconomic challenges. In brief, the Phillips Curve postulates that the relationship between inflation and unemployment rates is negative (Phillips, 1958). In the earlier recessions, unemployment from temporary layoffs rose when the economy was shrinking and fell after the economy began to recover. Define and illustrate graphically what is meant by the natural level of employment. Cyclical unemployment is unemployment in excess of the unemployment that exists at the natural level of employment. The employment level at which the quantity of labor demanded equals the quantity supplied is called the natural level of employment. DOES THE EXPORT-LED GROWTH (ELG) HYPOTHESIS HOLD FOR SERVICES EXPORTS IN NIGERIA, FISCAL OPERATIONS AND MACROECONOMIC GROWTH: THE NIGERIAN EXPERIENCE. Namibia: Unemployment rate from 2003 to 2022 Here, the natural level of employment is Le, which is achieved at a real wage e. Over the past five years, the Namibian economy registered an average growth rate of 4.3 percent. Figure 5.4 Computing the Unemployment Rate shows the surveys results for the civilian (nonmilitary) population for February 2012. Kunst, R. (2011). %. The authors suggest three possible reasons for the recent increased role of structural change: (1) The structural decline in some industries could be the result of overexpansion in those industries during the 1990s. (2021). The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. URL: https://doi.org/10.18775/ijied.1849-7551-7020.2015.75.2001, 1Johanna Pangeiko Nautwima, 2Asa Romeo Asa, 1Namibia Business School, Public Sector Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: In Search of a Stable Relationship, Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms and Domestic Real Investment in Nigeria: A Time Series Study 1981-2015, The Link between Financial Development and Sectoral Output Growth in Ethiopia: The Case of Agriculture, Industry and Service Sectors, Re-Examining the Nexus between Exchange and Interest Rates in Nigeria, The Crowding-Out Effect of Fiscal Policy on Capital Inflows in Nigeria, The effect of monetary policy and inflation on the exchange rate: A case study of Ghana, Relative Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Output Growth in a Small-open Economy, An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Nigeria, The effectiveness of monetary policy in tackling inflation in emerging economy, A Microscopic View of the Exotic Influence of Fiscal Policy on Some Selected Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria A Microscopic View of the Exotic Influence of Fiscal Policy on Some Selected Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria, Financial Market Development and Fiscal Deficit Financing In Nigeria, Validation of Twin Deficits Hypothesis: A Case Study of Pakistan, Public Expenditure and Revenue in Italy, 1862-1993, Asymmetrical Effect of Inflation on Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence by Nonlinear ARDL Approach, Technology Changes and the Impact on Accountancy Profession, The interrelationship between money supply, prices and government expenditures and economic growth: A causality analysis for the case of Cyprus, The Finance-Growth Nexus: Lessons from South Africa. In addition to this females recorded the highest unemployment rate of 34.3 per cent compared to their male counterparts who recorded a 32.5 per cent. The bound test is carried out to see the relationship between variables. Similarly, unemployment reduces economic growth and ultimately inclines the crime rate (Minisi & Badivuku-Pantina, 2017), as well as health related challenges (Godinic et al., 2020). The paper employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Granger causality approach using quarterly data for the period 2002 - 2017. Deliberately, the study excluded the periods of 2007-2008, as well as 2020-2021, although the data were readily available to avoid misleading results based on the influences of the economic annus horribilis of the financial crisis and Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic where one variable can rise without a reduction in the other. 61. Studies that utilized data of the years before 1980 bore semblance to the short-run Phillips Curve, while those that employed the data of recent years revealed stagflation where inflation and unemployment tend to move in the same direction. Relate the natural level of employment to the natural rate of unemployment. Engaging in a search makes them unemployed againand increases unemployment. Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal employment over Economica, 34 (135), 254-281. Structural unemployment can occur if too many or too few workers seek training or education that matches job requirements. In Namibia, over the past years, mapping poverty and understanding the root causes thereof has taken center stage at the course of national development through National Development Plans (NDPs). International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development Namibia unemployment rate for 2019 was 19.99%, a 0.11% increase from 2018. The official measures of employment and unemployment can yield unexpected results. Students cannot predict precisely how many jobs there will be in a particular category when they graduate, and they are not likely to know how many of their fellow students are training for these jobs. The study employed various econometrics analyses, encompassing unit root tests, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and Granger causality test. In 2018, Namibia reported an overall unemployment rate of 33.4%. According to global macro models and analysts at Trading Economics, the youth unemployment rate in Namibia is projected to be around 47.4% in 2023. Research Tools for Primary and Secondary Research, Useful and Reliable Article Sources for Researchers, How to Organize the Format of Your Writing, Argumentative Versus Persuasive. The recent inflation crisis and long-run economic growth in India: an empirical survey of threshold level of inflation. For example, in a country with a demographic bulge of new entrants into the labor force, frictional unemployment is likely to be high, because it takes the new entrants some time to find their first jobs. The Bank of Namibia progressively increased the policy rate to 7.25% in April 2023 from 6.75% in November 2022 and 3.75% in 2021. %. Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach Authors: Sunde Tafirenyika The Namibia University of Science and Technology Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi. In Namibia, a few studies that have been conducted to validate the notion of the Phillips Curve within the Namibian economy observed mixed results where Ogbokor (2005) concludes the presence of stagflation while Shifotoka (2015) validates the presence of the Phillips Curve in Namibia. Empirical results showed evidence of a long run positive effect of fiscal deficit on inflation in Namibia. Objective: The principal objective of the study is to explore the association between money supply, inflation, capital expenditure, and economic growth in Nepal. This page provides values for Unemployment Rate reported in several countries part of Africa. Figure 5.5 The Natural Level of Employment applies the demand and supply model to the labor market. Unlocking Namibia's economic growth and opportunities in 2023 They encourage firms seeking workers and workers seeking jobs to register with them. Instead, he underscored the existence of two Phillips Curves, a short-run Phillips Curve, and a long-run Phillips Curve, justifying that the trade-off is temporally in essence that it only exists in the short run and not in the long run. This study is set out to investigate the impact of fiscal policy variables (capital expenditure, recurrent expenditure and direct income tax) on economic growth in Nigeria. Thus, a rise in inflation above the anticipated rate will lead to a fall in the unemployment rate below the natural rate and vice-versa. Every worker is different; every job has its special characteristics and requirements. In short, both Friedman (1968); and Phelps (1967) have individually dared the theoretical underpinnings of the Phillips Curves admiration as a guide to policy. In that light, the applicability of the Phillips Curve concerning the Namibian economy remains unclear and continues to invite further debate. Lastly, the t-statistic tests the null hypothesis where the coefficient of zero for the regressor implies that it has no effect on the regressand. Mar/23. South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, 6(1), 105-132. Unemployment in Namibia Within the Framework of the Phillips Curve 1Johanna Pangeiko Nautwima, 2Asa Romeo Asa 1Namibia Business School, . Africa Australia G20 This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Unemployment Rate. Employability prediction: a survey of current approaches - Springer We are, however, of the opinion that a well both monetary and fisca. A Var analysis of the connection between FDI and economic growth: A Case study from Vietnam after 30 years reforms. The pairwise granger causality indicates that causality relationship does not exist between any of the fiscal policy variables and economic growth. The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. Research Leap is an international journal hosting platform for business research, management and innovation. By using our site, you agree to our collection of information through the use of cookies. Unemployment refers to the share of the labor force that is without work but available for and seeking employment. The results of the OLS regression analysis are presented as follows: From the results, the coefficients of the explanatory variables constituted in equations 1 and 2 are negative and statistically significant at a 5% level of significance. Result: The empirical findings of the study show that there is a significant long-run positive relationship between money supply, capital expenditure, and growth. As shown in figure 2.1. the short-run Phillips Curve holds both expected inflation rate and the natural rate of unemployment constant. Inclusively, the ideology of all economists covered in the literature presented in this study conclude that the trade-off of the Phillips Curve is only applicable in the short run but not in the long run, and different Phillips Curves vary with the rate of inflation since fluctuations in inflation expectations have the potential to shift the Phillips Curve. MATEC Web of Conferences, 150, 1-5. 2.3 Applications of the Production Possibilities Model, 4.2 Government Intervention in Market Prices: Price Floors and Price Ceilings, 5.1 Growth of Real GDP and Business Cycles, 7.2 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply: The Long Run and the Short Run, 7.3 Recessionary and Inflationary Gaps and Long-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium, 8.2 Growth and the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve, 9.2 The Banking System and Money Creation, 10.1 The Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets, 10.2 Demand, Supply, and Equilibrium in the Money Market, 11.1 Monetary Policy in the United States, 11.2 Problems and Controversies of Monetary Policy, 11.3 Monetary Policy and the Equation of Exchange, 12.2 The Use of Fiscal Policy to Stabilize the Economy, 13.1 Determining the Level of Consumption, 13.3 Aggregate Expenditures and Aggregate Demand, 15.1 The International Sector: An Introduction, 16.2 Explaining InflationUnemployment Relationships, 16.3 Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run, 17.1 The Great Depression and Keynesian Economics, 17.2 Keynesian Economics in the 1960s and 1970s, 19.1 The Nature and Challenge of Economic Development, 19.2 Population Growth and Economic Development, 20.1 The Theory and Practice of Socialism, 20.3 Economies in Transition: China and Russia, Nonlinear Relationships and Graphs without Numbers, Using Graphs and Charts to Show Values of Variables, The Aggregate Expenditures Model and Fiscal Policy. Additionally, an evidence of both long and short-run causality from government expenditure and money supply to unemployment is found. Also, the granger causality results show bidirectional causation between GDP, total government expenditure and broad money supply. Thus, an increase in the real wage induces a relatively small increase in the quantity of labor supplied. an increase in unemployment (for reasons elaborated in section 4 below), most countries have seen a fall in labor incomesthe average for SSA as a whole in 2020 is estimated at about 10 percent . The Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Namibia Within the Framework of the Phillips Curve. Khan, H. (2018). Unemployment that results from a mismatch between worker qualifications and the characteristics employers require is called structural unemployment.
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